🔥 wildfires 1.8×,
🌊 river floods 2.2×,
🍂 crop failures 3×,
🌀 tropical cyclones 1.4×,
🏜️ droughts 3.9× and
☀️ heatwaves 18.3×
more than without climate change.
Do the test 👉 myclimatefuture.info
In a 1.5°C world, I, as an 18-year-old, will experience these increases
🤔Frequently asked questions
A team of climate researchers led by the Vrije Universiteit of Brussels used 5 sources of data: newly-generated global-scale simulations of climate impacts across six extreme event categories; life expectancy data from the United Nations World Population Prospects; global mean temperature scenarios compiled in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius; gridded population reconstructions and projections; and country-scale cohort size data provided by the Wittgenstein Centre’s Human Capital Data Explorer. The detailed methods and results of this analysis are included in a publication in the renowned journal Science, published in October 2021.
The research calculates the exposure of an average person to climate impacts across their lifetime in 178 countries, 11 regions and the globe, then compares different age groups to calculate conservative estimates of lifetime extreme event occurrence as a consequence of climate change.
It’s not too late, but we need to act now and reduce our global greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero as quickly as possible.
1.5°C: The Paris Agreement commits countries to hold warming ‘well below’ 2°C and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Here we use a 1.5°C compatible scenario that gives about a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C warming over the course of the century and results in warming slightly below 1.5°C in 2100.
Climate promises: Current climate pledges put us on a path of 1.9°C to 3.0°C warming by 2100. Current policies put us on a path of 2.1°C to 3.9°C warming by 2100. In this tool, we employ a scenario that puts us on a path towards 2.4°C warming by 2100, which corresponds to the best estimate of where the current climate pledges will lead to. See here for more info on the link between climate action and resulting global warming. DISCLAIMER: these numbers represent the status on 18/10/2021 and are expected to change as countries announce new pledges.
High warming: In this tool, we define high warming as a scenario where global mean temperatures increase in a linear way to 3.5°C by 2100.
All scenarios are described in this study are published in Science.
We provide increases relative to a world without climate change because this allows us to make more meaningful calculations without having a strong dependency on the definitions of extreme events. For this tool, we want people of any age to get a comparison – recognising that people from every generation are experiencing more exposure to extreme events. Comparisons between age groups is also possible – and was done in our study.
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